Cromford Report Definitions

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Explanation of Column Headings

 

ST = SHORT TERM TREND – The arrows in this column indicate the direction of the change between TODAY and LAST MTH

 

LT = LONG TERM TREND – The arrows in this column indicate the direction of the change between TODAY and LAST YR

 

Color code: The background to the trend arrow is colored green if the direction is favorable for sellers and is colored red if the direction is favorable for buyers. It is colored yellow if the change was zero. If the the circle is white then then the statistic is neutral for both buyers and sellers.

 

Columns: Each data column shows measurements taken on a single day with the date shown at the top of the column.

 

TODAY means the date given at the top of the column.

 

LAST MTH means the same date last month.

 

LAST QTR means the same date three months ago.

 

LAST YR means the same date one year ago.

 

2 YRS AGO means the same date two years ago.

 

Explanation of Terms Used

Active List Price $/SF Premium is the percentage by which the average list price per square foot for active listings exceeds the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Month.

Active Listings means the number of MLS listings marked active or active with a contingent offer on the date in question. This will fluctuate on any particular day. We take a random sample during that day.

Active Listings Excluding UCB means the number of MLS listings market active on the date in question, excluding any listings that are under contract accepting back-up offers. This will fluctuate on any particular day. We take a random sample during that day.

Active Listings $/SF is the average list price per square foot for Active Listings (as defined above). Note that this is not an “average of ratios”, but the true average list price of all the square feet of living space represented by the active listings.

Annual Growth in Pending Listings means the percentage difference between Pending Listings today versus the same date last year.

Annual Growth in Sales per Month means the percentage difference between Sales per Month (7 Day Average) today versus the same date last year.

Annual Median Price as % Peak means the Median Price – Annual Sales as a percentage of the maximum Median Price – Annual Sales previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the median price has fallen since the peak level.

Annual Sales means the sales which closed This Year (as defined below). Also known as Sales per Year.

Annual Sales $/SF means the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Year . Note that it is not an “average of ratios”, but the true average sale price of all the square feet of living space represented by the homes included in Annual Sales. We use today’s actual Monthly Sales, not a rolling average.

Annual Sales $/SF as % Peak means the Annual Sales $/SF as a percentage of the maximum Annual Sales $/SF previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the market pricing has fallen since the peak level.

Appreciation – Annual $/SF compares the Annual Sales $/SF for today with that for the same date last year. This is the average annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent annual period with one year earlier.

Appreciation – Long Term compares the Annual Sales $/SF for today with that for January 1, 2001 and determines the annual appreciation rate between the two.

Appreciation – Monthly Median $ compares the Median Price – Monthly Sales for today with that for the same date last year. This is the annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent monthly median sales price with the same month last year.

Appreciation – Annual Median $ compares the Median Price – Annual Sales for today with that for the same date last year. This is the annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent annual median sales price with the same month last year.

Appreciation – Monthly $/SF compares the Monthly Sales $/SF for today with that for the same date last year. This is the average annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent monthly period with the same month last year.

Average Price – Annual Sales is the average gross price recorded as paid for homes sold This Year.

Average Price – Monthly Sales is the average gross price recorded as paid for homes sold This Month.

Average Sale Price % List compares the average sale price and average final list price for homes sold This Month. It shows how close the final sales price was to the list price that was in effect at the time the listing closed. Of course, this may be different from the initial list price.

Average Sq. Ft. – Annual Sales means the average living space in square feet for homes sold This Year .

Average Sq. Ft. – Monthly Sales means the average living space in square feet for homes sold This Month.

AWC Listings – now known as UCB listings – means the number of MLS listings marked active but under contract soliciting backup offers. This will fluctuate a little on any particular day and we take a random sample.

Contract Ratio indicates how “hot” a market is. It specifically measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings. It is defined as 100 x (Pending Listings + UCB Listings) / Active Listings Exclusing UCB. The higher the number the greater the buying activity relative to supply. If this number rises then it is a sign of growing contract activity and a positive signal for sellers. Conversely a falling number is a sign of a weakening market – either supply of active listings is increasing or contract activity is slowing, or both. In a balanced market for normal market segments, the value of the Contract Ratio is usually between 30 and 60. When it lies below 20 the market can be considered “slow” or a “cold market”. Above 60 can be considered a “hot market” and when it moves above 100 we regard this as evidence of a “buying frenzy”. In high-end luxury market segments the normal level is lower, usually lying between 15 and 25.

Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.

Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer’s market, while values above 100 indicate a seller’s market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Cromford Supply Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the supply of resale homes to the market. It is derived from the trends in active listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more supply than usual, while values below 100 indicate less supply than usual. A value of 100 indicates the supply is close to normal.

Days on Market – Monthly Sales means the average cumulative days on market for sales which closed This Month (as defined below).

Days on Market – Active Listings is the average cumulative days on market for Active Listings (as defined above).

Days Inventory indicates how many days it would take to sell all the Active Listings if they were to sell at the rate implied by Annual Sales and assuming no new listings became active. It equals Days in Last Year x Active Listings / Annual Sales.

Dollar Volume – Annual Sales is the total dollar value of the homes closed This Year.

Dollar Volume – Monthly Sales is the total dollar value of the homes closed This Month.

Lender-owned % Active Listings is a measure of the percentage of the active listings that consist of lender-owned properties. The properties are identified by examining the “remarks”, “realtor remarks” and “special listing conditions” fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The “special listing conditions” field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Lender-owned % Monthly Sales is a measure of the percentage of the monthly sales that consist of lender-owned properties. The properties are identified by examining the “remarks”, “realtor remarks” and “special listing conditions” fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The “special listing conditions” field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Listing Success Rate is the percentage of listings that closed with a sale rather than expiring or being canceled. It compares the number of listings sold This Month with the number of listings that were sold, expired or canceled in the same period. This percentage gives a useful indication of what percentage of terminated listings closed successfully.

Long Term Appreciation compares Average Sale Price per sq. ft. for today with that for Jan 1, 2001 and computes the annual rate of appreciation over the entire period. Normally we use the sales during the month that ended on Dec 31, 2000 as the baseline. However if there were fewer than 20 sales during this month we use all the sales during 2000 in order to avoid possible distortion due to the small sample.

Market Distress Index is a value that provides a measure of the percentage of the market that consists of pre-foreclosures, lender-owned properties and short-sales. Both active listings and monthly sales are considered for this. The properties are identified by examining the “remarks”, “realtor remarks” and “special listing conditions” fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The “special listing conditions” field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Median Price – Annual Sales is based on the homes included in Annual Sales, and is the price point which separates the higher half of the sales prices from the lower half. It is usually substantially lower than the Average Price – Annual Sales, since sales of large expensive homes have little impact on the median but a large impact on the average.

Median Price – Monthly Sales is based on the homes included in Monthly Sales, and is the price point which separates the higher half of the sales prices from the lower half. It is usually substantially lower than the Average Price – Monthly Sales, since sales of large expensive homes have little impact on the median but a large impact on the average.

Monthly Median Price as % Peak means the Median Price – Monthly Sales as a percentage of the maximum Median Price – Monthly Sales previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the median price has fallen since the peak level.

Monthly Sales means the sales which closed This Month (as defined below).

Monthly Sales $/SF means the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Month. Note that it is not an “average of ratios”, but the true average sale price of all the square feet of living space represented by the homes included in Monthly Sales. We use today’s actual Monthly Sales, not a rolling average.

Monthly Sales $/SF as % Peak means the Monthly Sales $/SF as a percentage of the maximum Monthly Sales $/SF previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the market pricing has fallen since the peak level.

Months Supply indicates how many months it would take to sell all the Active Listings if they were to sell at the rate implied by Sales per Month (7 Day Average).

Pending Listings means the number of MLS listings under pending contract where escrow has not yet closed. This will vary during any given day. We take a random sample during the day in question.

Pending Listings $/SF is the average list price per square foot for Pending Listings (as defined above). Note that this is not an “average of ratios”, but the true average list price of all the square feet of living space represented by the pending listings.

Pre-foreclosure % Active Listings is a measure of the percentage of the active listings that consist of pre-foreclosures and short sales. The properties are identified by examining the “remarks”, “realtor remarks” and “special listing conditions” fields within the ARMLS database. The “special listing conditions” field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Pre-foreclosure % Monthly Sales is a measure of the percentage of the monthly sales that consist of pre-foreclosures and short sales. The properties are identified by examining the “remarks”, “realtor remarks” and “special listing conditions” fields within the ARMLS database. The “special listing conditions” field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Sales per Month means the number of sales which closed This Month (as defined below). Also known as Monthly Sales.

Sales per Month (7 Day Average) means the average Sales per Month over the last seven days. When sales are measured daily, we sometimes use the average for Sales per Month over 7 days in order to eliminate distortion effects caused by sales tending to close more frequently on specific days of the week. We use this figure to compute months supply, to avoid excessive volatility in the month supply statistics.

Sales per Year means the number of sales which closed This Year (as defined below). Also known as Annual Sales.

This Month means the period which starts with today’s date last month and ends at midnight yesterday. If today’s date did not exist last month, the 1st of the current month is used instead. This monthly period will be between 28 and 31 days depending on the number of days in the previous calendar month. “This Month” only refers to a single calendar month when today happens to be the 1st of a month. On all other dates “This Month” refers to a period that is split between 2 calendar month. For example, on July 14, “This Month” means June 14 to July 13, but on August 1, “This Month” means July 1 to July 31.

This Weeks Sales % Avg is a percentage comparison of sales during the last seven days with the average number of sales for the same dates in the years 2001 onwards.

This Year means the period which starts with today’s date last year and ends at midnight yesterday. This period is either 365 or 366 days depending on whether the previous year was a leap year.

UCB Listings – formerly known as AWC listings – means listings marked active but under contract soliciting backup offers. This will fluctuate a little on any particular day and we take a random sample.

 

 

 

The data used to create the Cromford Report™ is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS
expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.